Monday, August 31, 2009

This is an economic recovery?

DELL and INTEL just raised guidance last week......

the NASDAQ did not move higher, which is a tell, one would think.

plus when you look at how they beat #'s......

31% of Dell sales growth was from government and we must remember that Dell buys Intel chips; now Intel raises guidance. Government spending is almost 50% of GDP now; china is only 35%. Few are discussing why these companies are making revenue expectations and whether they’ll indeed prove sustainable.” jeff cooper

so the govt is spending more money than expected. that isnt exactly what one would call an economic rebound is it? that is just foolish spending. ive seen this movie before, and it ends bad!

Thursday, August 20, 2009

welp the bulls bought that gap down

the house is liquid.

check out the big bad breakout on Citigroup. ugh, shudnt have sold that!

the fundamentals of this recovery are bad. i dont see how u can argue it any other way? the institutions that brought the country to its knees last october are the big winners in all of this. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, right down to Fannie and Freddie. who wont the govt bailout? CIT.........thats becuase they secure most the loans for 90% of the country. you know, the average guy. if that blows up, and since its a buck 40.........its done! thats real bad for the average american!

still not 1 new job created. jobs still being shedded. revolving debt going higher and higher with insanity like cash for clunkers and first time home buyer credits.

southpark did an episode last yr, that i thought cud have been funny, but i didnt think it was very funny, at first. it was about the economic crisis......long story short. stan gets a credit card and put everyones debt onto his credit card. so he ate all the debt and people started shopping again. maybe bush and paulson were super baked, and watched that and thought "thats a great idea" becuase i swear to god thats what theyve done. and barry didnt CHANGE a thing!

there needs to be an unwinding of debt. but we are adding more, to get the economy going. it worked in 2003, but look at the recoil? if this rally really lasts for more than a yr, can u imagine the next recoil?

i bought some pig flu back after whoring it out premarket on tuesday around 5.

i nibbled on some silver today at 13.85. just for a mark. i want it below 13 to add size.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Bulls better buy this gap down!

cnbc muttering something about china entering a bear market becuase that market is down 20% this month. i dont know how a new one starts.....if the old never ended......but i know we have had a huge rally. the spos rallied 50%, the RUT 62%. i also remember in 1933 and 34, the Dow rallied 134%....was the depression over, or in its 4th inning?

i shud feel better that mr buffett says the recession is over, but i think he is becoming like greenspan.......INSANE!

September and October, seasonally speaking r when crashes happen..........1929, 1987,2000,2008........the rubber gonna meet the road.

im not long or short, 100% cash.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Wrong again? Probably...............

Gotta love this game, until it kills you.

Futures in free fall after a bad Friday.

If this scenario just played out, this market is going to get really ugly, really fast. Hindsight will be 20/20, but that is never a comforting thought.

Since I ran a Hedge Fund and know many other fund managers, brokers, etc, I tend know how a lot of the big money thinks.

So the bulls run the tape up into the Fed Decision, but the volume was light. Usually a great sign that once those minutes are released the market will go lower. That didn't happen on Tuesday. Instead nothing happened at 215 when the rate decision and statement were released. Then about 15 minutes (upon further review), i think the bears caved in. The Bears were the buyers, after that statement came out. It wasn't real buyers. It was short covering. And right now that looks like it was the panic capitulation buying that occurs at major tops.

While it will always be the markets movements that make the news and not the news that moves the markets. As I have discussed, this has been a financial rebound. Main Street hasn't seen an uptick, yet. And if, finally, after about 50 years of expansion through debt, the US consumer is finally done. Finally done spending more than they make. Are the Baby Boomers finally done buying and now just draining out of their 401ks? what happens when the boomers start to sell down the 401k and the IRA, to live? that's a lot of supply of stock coming to market, and who is gonna buy it?

Long term my views have never wavered, but i may have gotten stuck top ticking this tape. it wouldn't be the first time. the key, if wrong, is to admit it, take some losses and move on. which is probably what I'm gonna do. which means selling my Citigroup, for a small loss.

this is going to be an interesting day. if the bulls buy the gap down, they its gonna be ok, for a while, probably. if we get smashed today and close at day lows, that would probably be a big enough dent to the recovery, that it would halt. the double dip is a reality and ben loses his job in early 2010.

when germany, france and japan suggest the recession is over and the world markets tank............well that shudnt happen and the begining of an economic expansion, should it?

Thursday, August 13, 2009

so i guess i was wrong...........

y i own C..............................????????????? cant believe it. but i cant think of a reason why, and then look at the chart!

that usually works like 85% of the time becuase im dumb and charts r smart.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Tops are a process

The S&P 500 is making a rounding formation, which is bearish, till it isn't.......

all the economists who didn't see this coming, now say the recession is over, but in March they said the recession would still be spreading by now.......... So, essentially, paid Wall Street Economists move in herds (with their think like mentality). Outside of the rally on Wall Street, Main Street appears to be getting worse, not better.

If stocks roll over hard, that's when everyone will be talking about this double dip recession.......

I hope I'm wrong, but not much data to suggest jobs are coming. Without job growth, its tough for an asset based economy to grow organically. In fact, in seems like this bounce is coming for short lived stupid spending programs from DC, like cash for clunkers. This does nothing to change the structural dynamics of what plagues the United States, in fact, it adds to the problem, because at the end of the day, the average person walks away owning a new car (they really don't need), and having more revolving debt than every before. just to save a few bucks at the pump, get an ego boast from the new car and think you are eco friendly.

the average person needs to roll down on leverage, but again whether its the right or the left, its spend spend spend. when did spending become the American way?

Thursday, August 6, 2009

looks toppy in here

add the bank of england to the list of central banks that have just up and lost their minds. the pound getting pounded.... no one bullish one the dollar. at 78, 83 looks doable on a counter trend rally.......that shud take about 500 off the dow.

i dont own any longs and am looking at some puts in the financial area, like Bank of America (BAC).

Have not put anything on, but want to.......

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Cashing in my long chips. bear market rally over, imo

i expect, since now, only 3% of traders are bullish on the US Dollar, its recent slide is over. I expect a counter trend rally for the greenback. Thus im taking my silver and natty gas exposure off, that i put on a couple months ago. still hold a core in silver but ill trade around what i bought at 13.09.

I expect a nasty corrections soon, led by the financials. That should also start turning the economy back down.

i see no structual reasons that the economy is doing better other than some of the financial markets, but to 90% of the country, the USA remains in the worst recession since the 1930's.

Monday, August 3, 2009

Stocks getting their swerve on......the recession must be over?

Or is this just a function of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury throwing money around like a poet on payday?

All this money had to go somewhere and it sure is not being lent to the consumer or small business's.

Also you may want to notice the continued 100% inverse correlation between the $ and stocks (and other long dated assets, such as real estate).

As the $ goes lower, assets prices go up, but that leads to major inflation.

I continue to believe we are headed towards structural depressflation. that is an expanded period of negative to slow economic growth (below 2% growth or lower is slow, imo), while we experience inflation that is higher than GDP.

The Consumer Price Index (the CPI) the Headline number the Federal Reserve uses, as does all of Wall Street, that supposedly pegs what are inflation rate is. the number is so manipulated, I can not understand why it is not challenged more often? If the BLS ever reported what inflation really was, social security checks would be going up fast, and since social security is already broke........The BLS has a lot to lose by releasing non watered down numbers.

I think anyone who shops for their own food (until recently, now there are prices drops), or pays for education, healthcare, etc knows inflation is much higher than 1%. It is probably closer to 10%. We have inflation for stuff we need. Healthcare, education, natural resources.....we have deflation for stuff we have and don't need more of. Cars, computers, and TV's............

If you believe the Dollar is going lower, the best bets are natural resources. I love silver and natty gas. gold seems like a good idea. how you chose to play that or not, is not for me to decide. i play through stocks because i don't understand futures. i don't get involved in something i don't understand.

not seeing anything real funny to make fun of yet, but the day is young.

In La LA land (AKA, Washington DC) still think the same thing. barry, bush, whats the difference? not seeing one. barry spending more than bush but the tangent is the same. If bush was still in there, he would be spending the same amount of money.

"the beer summit" was funny. CNN actually had a ticker with the types of beers they drank. I love how the right just thinks this is utterly deplorable, while our last commander and chief was doing blow off the oval office desk, while wearing one of those drinking helmets. bottle of jack daniels on one side and a can of coke in the other.

pass the diprovan!

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Long reality short the kool aid.

Long reality, short the kool aid!

My goal for this blog is to possibly enlighten some people that non bipartisan attitudes are ruining the United States of America. Mostly, I will write and debate about the financial markets, and politics. There will probably be a few other areas covered such as sports, dry humor and music. Another topic that will pop up is how I believe many of the larger organized religions are moving the World toward World War III, with nuclear reprocussions.

An additional goal is to be able to analyze the structural and secular headwinds this Country is going headed towards, in an agnostic fashion. As the baby boomers move past their peak earnings years and entitlement programs get tapped beyond their resources, there are going to be some major changes to our society, in my opinion. Not to mention how the quality of education in this country has taken a nose dive the last 25 years or so. These are two of the main forces that have knocked the United States from the economic super power it was in the 20th century.Will it ever regain it's place on top? I am not leaning in that direction, but maybe through some serious homework we will be able to see the forest through the trees. I honestly hope so!

Talk about your plenty, talk about your ills
One man gathers what another man spills.
Robert Hunter