Wrong again? Probably...............

Gotta love this game, until it kills you.

Futures in free fall after a bad Friday.

If this scenario just played out, this market is going to get really ugly, really fast. Hindsight will be 20/20, but that is never a comforting thought.

Since I ran a Hedge Fund and know many other fund managers, brokers, etc, I tend know how a lot of the big money thinks.

So the bulls run the tape up into the Fed Decision, but the volume was light. Usually a great sign that once those minutes are released the market will go lower. That didn't happen on Tuesday. Instead nothing happened at 215 when the rate decision and statement were released. Then about 15 minutes (upon further review), i think the bears caved in. The Bears were the buyers, after that statement came out. It wasn't real buyers. It was short covering. And right now that looks like it was the panic capitulation buying that occurs at major tops.

While it will always be the markets movements that make the news and not the news that moves the markets. As I have discussed, this has been a financial rebound. Main Street hasn't seen an uptick, yet. And if, finally, after about 50 years of expansion through debt, the US consumer is finally done. Finally done spending more than they make. Are the Baby Boomers finally done buying and now just draining out of their 401ks? what happens when the boomers start to sell down the 401k and the IRA, to live? that's a lot of supply of stock coming to market, and who is gonna buy it?

Long term my views have never wavered, but i may have gotten stuck top ticking this tape. it wouldn't be the first time. the key, if wrong, is to admit it, take some losses and move on. which is probably what I'm gonna do. which means selling my Citigroup, for a small loss.

this is going to be an interesting day. if the bulls buy the gap down, they its gonna be ok, for a while, probably. if we get smashed today and close at day lows, that would probably be a big enough dent to the recovery, that it would halt. the double dip is a reality and ben loses his job in early 2010.

when germany, france and japan suggest the recession is over and the world markets tank............well that shudnt happen and the begining of an economic expansion, should it?